Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
