Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
